Overlays, overlays – the only way to bet.
The whole point of betting is making money. You can realistically only do this by finding something the crowd has overlooked — overlays. The crowd tends to bet the morning line and fairly obvious things like speed figures, class, jockeys and trainers. The more sophisticated bettors, using either a sharp eye or fancy computer programs, can find overlays in pace, trouble lines, and even arcane things like breeding. The Fat Cowboy’s HorseSheets give you an edge, because it gives you numbers the crowd has no access to, and which the guys with the fancy computers often don’t find or they wouldn’t pay double digits.
The last race – the most important stat in the PP’s.
Everything starts with the horse’s last race: the way it ran, the pace, the speed, the surface, the distance, jockey/trainer changes, medication, trouble lines, geldings, bandages, and much more. All this information can’t be computed and printed out with a nice number. We can, however, give you a number for each horse that includes the most important factors in its last race, also considering the four races before its last race. Those hidden numbers are in the last four totals columns on the short sheets: TOTAL PACE LAST, BEST ALL, BEST LAST, and TOTALS. Of these, I find the most reliable big payoffs come from the factors involved in its last race: TOTAL PACE LAST and BEST LAST. Not every day, not at every track, not every race. But the top three horses in those two columns are hidden from the crowd, and from the big bettors, or you wouldn’t ever find a horse in there that pays the huge boxcars I’ve caught over the years.
The figs.
The other important factors in a horse’s past are, of course, speed figures and pace. The HorseSheets give you an average speed figure for the horse’s past races, including all ratable races, all ratable races on this surface within 110 yards, and all ratable races of the same type as the race today: sprints or routes.
PPOP: Predictable Patterns of Performance.
Of course another valuable source of overlays is the pace of the race, and the way each of the horses will run today. The Fat Cowboy’s SYS1, SYS2, and CLOSE, which includes all ratable races of all distances and surfaces, as well as TDONE, TDTWO, and TDCLO, which include only races at this surface and distance. These give you in effect a videotape of the way the race will be run before the gate opens, and it’s remarkably accurate.
Let’s look at some recent races. (You can find the HorseSheets for them on thefatcowboy.com under “The HorseSheets.)
In the second race at Belmont on October 20th, the HorseSheets in the CLOSE column had the 2,1,8,5,10 as the horses who need the early lead, in that order. At the quarter and half the order was 2,8,1,10,5. The #5 won the race.
In the third, the HorseSheets CLOSE column had the early speed needers as 9,6,1,10,5. The actual pace at the quarter and half was 6,9,10,11,7. The #11 won the race.
You get the idea. The CLOSE figure tells you whether the horse is a fader or a closer, and by how much. The #2’s CLOSE figure in the 2nd race above was .03. That means it just doesn’t know how to do anything but try to get in front. The #7’s CLOSE figure in that race was 2.1, which means he is historically a closer. The situation you look for is an imbalance here. Seven early speed horses and two closers, for example. Or two early speed horses and the rest closers.
The SYS1, SYS2, TDONE and TDTWO on the short sheets give you an idea of where the horse runs in the pack – the bigger the number, the more toward the front. Those same columns one the long sheets give you the average position the horse has run in its last five ratable races. Go back to the #2 horse in the second race at Belmont from above, and you’ll find it has a SYS1 position of 1.8. That means he has consistently been on the lead in his past races.
So why didn’t the #7 or the #4 win that 2nd race? Because there’s more to handicapping than picking a number. Check the comments line and you’ll see the #5 had some serious trouble in it last race, which hurt its last race speed rating and its numbers in the last four columns of the short sheet. He got a smart ride from Cohen, letting the speed go and wear itself out, then closed and won. The #7 did, however, come in second. The exacta only paid $12.90, so this is one that was figured out by the smart guys and the crowd. Not our kind of race, really. But we don’t bet exactas; we bet horizontal exotics – double, pick 3, pick 4, rarely the pick 5 and almost never the pick 6.
The third race that day was a cinch. 8.5 furlongs, evenly distributed between closers and early speeders, with the #11 the top speed horse and tied for the best closer. He was so obvious he only paid $4.70. The $1 double paid a measly $10.80.
Things got a little more interesting in the 4th. Look at the short sheet for the 20th at Belmont, and you’ll see the #9 way down at the bottom in the average speed columns. Some obvious things in his favor are the sharp workout a few days ago, and the switch to Castellano. But the telltale number is in the TOTL PACE LAST column. Second highest figure by only one point, to the #8, and tied for the highest last race speed figure. Worth a win bet? I thought so. But more importantly, also a must use for any exotics. Bottom line: the #9 won and paid $13.40. The #8 came in second. The exacta paid $23.30. The $1 pick 3, which was a gift, paid $83 for my $6 ticket.
Let’s look at one more race: the 5th on the 20th at Belmont. Another totally obvious winner. 8.5 furlongs. #7 had the highest speed figures, was the best closer, and had Castellano/Brown connections. So obvious it only paid $3.60. The double paid a paltry $12.30. The pick 3 paid $26.75. My $6 pick 4 ticket paid $72.37.
I assume you’re getting the idea.
How will we bet the Breeders’ Cup? Don’t know yet, because the post positions haven’t been drawn, and the final lineup hasn’t been set. The draw is on Monday afternoon. I’ll try to have the BC Horsesheets up, with comments and some selections and best bets, by Wednesday evening.
It will be interesting. Looking at the early figures in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, NEWSPAPEROFRECORD has the best figures across the board, except, of course, for the invaders, for whom we have no PP’s.
In the Juvenile Fillies, SERENGETI has the best TOTL PACE LAST figure, bolstered by her huge early pace figures in her last. With the exception of SERENGETI and BELLAFINA, however, the American horses’ speed figures are not extraordinarily impressive. The invaders might be better here; but overseas they have a tendency to hang back and close, so we’ll see. In the Filly and Mare Sprint, SELCOURT and DREAM TREE have the best last race figures. And so it goes.
It’s always fun handicapping
