Here are some percentages for win bets.
In non-maiden races, with zero handicapping, the winner is:
1. among the top six in PROJ SPD 94% of the time.
2. among the top three in PROJ SPD 60% of the time.
3. among the top two in PROJ SPD 45% of the time.
4. the top horse in PROJ SPD 28% of the time.
5. The top horse in BEST OVERALL 37% of the time.
6. The top horse in BEST LAST 31% of the time.
So far, after a few thousand races, option #5 is most likely to produce a flat bet profit. If you’re looking for longshots, the CLOSING AVERAGE column produces quite a few. Under favorable conditions the lowest number (best early speed) in that column can overcome speed figures and win fairly frequently, often paying extremely well. At the other end, sometimes the biggest number in that column (best closer) can pay well.
BIG TOTL can point the way to some bigtime longshots, especially in route races, as can TOTL PACE LAST, which works best in sprints. Any unusually high number in either of these columns deserves a good look, especially at attractive odds, and possibly a what-the-hell kind of bet.
Bet wisely. Aqueduct and Oaklawn are muddy today.
