Here are three different sets of sheets, the first by closing ability, the next two by projected speed.

horsesheets 4-30 and 5-1 2021 Churchill Downs

Here are HorseSheets for 4-28 and 4-29. Thought it might be useful to track the races in the days preceding the Oaks and the Derby to get a feel for what the track’s doing.

horsesheets 4-28 and 4-29 Churchill Downs

Here are a few ways to look at the upcoming derby. Remember, the post draw isn’t until Tuesday, so we don’t know what posts will be assigned, nor do we know for certain that all these horses will compete. But have fun, anyway.

derby 21 fcby

Here’s the new format for Thursday, 4-22-2021. I’ve made some comments on the early races as I analyze them. Don’t let those bother you.

FatCowboy 4-22 sheets

Here are some percentages for win bets.

In non-maiden races, with zero handicapping, the winner is:

1. among the top six in PROJ SPD 94% of the time.
2. among the top three in PROJ SPD 60% of the time.
3. among the top two in PROJ SPD 45% of the time.
4. the top horse in PROJ SPD 28% of the time.
5. The top horse in BEST OVERALL 37% of the time.
6. The top horse in BEST LAST 31% of the time.

So far, after a few thousand races, option #5 is most likely to produce a flat bet profit. If you’re looking for longshots, the CLOSING AVERAGE column produces quite a few. Under favorable conditions the lowest number (best early speed) in that column can overcome speed figures and win fairly frequently, often paying extremely well. At the other end, sometimes the biggest number in that column (best closer) can pay well.

BIG TOTL can point the way to some bigtime longshots, especially in route races, as can TOTL PACE LAST, which works best in sprints. Any unusually high number in either of these columns deserves a good look, especially at attractive odds, and possibly a what-the-hell kind of bet.

Bet wisely. Aqueduct and Oaklawn are muddy today.

fat cowboy 4-17-2021

long horsesheets 4-9-2021 by average