I’m kind of embarrassed to admit I had a pretty good Derby day, almost wholly because I made a substantial bet on Mandaloun – not because of my handicapping, but because of the name. When I saw it a few weeks before the Derby I knew I had to bet it. Don’t know why. Don’t care. The point is, I wish I had a name to bet in the Black Susan, because it’s such a ragbag of horses – dirt horses, turf horses, maiden breakers, synthetic horses, route horses, sprint horses, closers, closers, closers, and no real speed in evidence. But anyway, here goes.

blackeyed susan analysis

Here’s a new quarterhorse format I just put together. I figured out an algorithm that uses information from each horse’s PP’s to predict its final time in the upcoming race. Working pretty good so far; give it a try. Haven’t gotten it down to the 110 yard sprints yet, and there’s not enough information to reliably predict a maiden race with first-time-starters. But from 220 up it’s pretty good.

Fat Cowboy quarters 5-10-2021

Happy Mothers’ Day! I’ve produced a couple of sheets for Sunday: BTOT and FCBY for AP, BEL, CD, GP, and SA. BTOT is a new arrangement, sorted by a fairly complex algorithm that produces some monster hits. For a recent example: keyed a $200 exacta in the 5th at Belmont on Friday. It happens fairly rarely, but if you use it wisely it can give you some big hits. It’s usually at its best in routes, but pulls up some pretty good winners in 6.5f races also for some reason. FCBY is a recent arrangement that tries to put the essential information into a very accessible format. It’s sorted by projected overall speed, then also gives you each horse’s historical average at the same type of race (sprint or route) on today’s surface, and their historical speed average on this surface at a distance within 110 yards of today’s distance. That one pulls up some pretty good payoffs, also. Have fun! I’ll be putting up sheets for Friday and Saturday of Preakness weekend, too. Don’t know when they’ll go up, but LW&TCDR I’ll get them up sometime.

btot horsesheets 5-9-2021

fcby horsesheets 5-9-2021

Here are three different sets of sheets, the first by closing ability, the next two by projected speed.

horsesheets 4-30 and 5-1 2021 Churchill Downs

Here are HorseSheets for 4-28 and 4-29. Thought it might be useful to track the races in the days preceding the Oaks and the Derby to get a feel for what the track’s doing.

horsesheets 4-28 and 4-29 Churchill Downs

Here are a few ways to look at the upcoming derby. Remember, the post draw isn’t until Tuesday, so we don’t know what posts will be assigned, nor do we know for certain that all these horses will compete. But have fun, anyway.

derby 21 fcby

Here’s the new format for Thursday, 4-22-2021. I’ve made some comments on the early races as I analyze them. Don’t let those bother you.

FatCowboy 4-22 sheets

Here are some percentages for win bets.

In non-maiden races, with zero handicapping, the winner is:

1. among the top six in PROJ SPD 94% of the time.
2. among the top three in PROJ SPD 60% of the time.
3. among the top two in PROJ SPD 45% of the time.
4. the top horse in PROJ SPD 28% of the time.
5. The top horse in BEST OVERALL 37% of the time.
6. The top horse in BEST LAST 31% of the time.

So far, after a few thousand races, option #5 is most likely to produce a flat bet profit. If you’re looking for longshots, the CLOSING AVERAGE column produces quite a few. Under favorable conditions the lowest number (best early speed) in that column can overcome speed figures and win fairly frequently, often paying extremely well. At the other end, sometimes the biggest number in that column (best closer) can pay well.

BIG TOTL can point the way to some bigtime longshots, especially in route races, as can TOTL PACE LAST, which works best in sprints. Any unusually high number in either of these columns deserves a good look, especially at attractive odds, and possibly a what-the-hell kind of bet.

Bet wisely. Aqueduct and Oaklawn are muddy today.

fat cowboy 4-17-2021

long horsesheets 4-9-2021 by average

Disregarding maiden races, and with no additional handicapping, over the last 1,000 races or so:

One of the top three horses under “ALL” came in 60% of the time.
One of the top two under “ALL” came in 45% of the time.
The top horse under “ALL” came in 28% of the time.
One of the top six horses under “ALL” came in 95% of the time.

So there ya’ go.

NEWSHEETS 3-4-2021